5.1 In order to understand the latent demand for EV charge points across the county it is necessary to make forecasts of where that demand is likely to come from. Recent market trends are described earlier in this document but forecasting the future is less certain.
5.2 Some headline analysis was carried out by Cumbria Action for Sustainability (CAfS) in 2021 based on the population of the county; known rates of car ownership; projected EV registrations, and projected ratio of EVs to public charge points. CAfS projection suggested that there would need to be 6,400 public charge points in the county by 2030. Data from the national Climate Change Committee put the figure at a more conservative 2,100. At the time of the CAfS report there were 251, according to Zap-Map (May 2021). While this number is rising gradually, the rate of change is not fast enough to meet the level of projected demand.
5.3 Whichever projection is preferred, the stark fact is that we need to significantly accelerate the installation of public charge points across Cumberland if we are to meet our objectives above.